Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Dollar falters as fiscal and trade policy concerns grow President Trump’s recommendation of a 50% tariff on the EU gave the dollar only a short-lived boost and the DXY index is still on track to snap a four-week ‘winning’ streak. This looks likely to be... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Big is not so beautiful for bonds The passage of Donald Trump’s ‘one, big beautiful bill’ through the House of Representatives today has done little to calm nerves in the bond market, which had already been frayed by Moody’s recent... 22nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for Asian currencies The de-escalation of the US-China trade war and the Trump administration’s wider reduction of tariff rates means that a sharp depreciation of the renminbi has become less probable. While we continue... 19th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Some signs of residual market stress after tariff shock There are still a few signs of stress in US financial markets. That’s despite this week’s ongoing rebound in the S&P 500, which has taken it well above its level on “Liberation Day”. It reflects the... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Why the tariff truce hasn’t altered our growth forecasts The scale of this week's tariff de-escalation was a bit larger than we had expected. But most of the rollback had already been factored into our forecasts. And while the threat from tariffs has... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Trade truce keeps the greenback on the front foot, mostly The de-escalation in the US-China trade war gave the dollar a renewed boost against most G10 currencies this week. But, a fall back in Treasury yields has taken away some of those gains as we head... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key questions on the outlook for Europe’s financial markets European markets have had a strong start to the year, and we are cautiously optimistic about the outlook over the next couple of years. We think European equities have turned a corner, while euro-zone... 15th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Back to square one? Taking stock of the trade war roundtrip One month on from the peak of the post-“Liberation Day” market turmoil, calm has largely returned and most key asset markets have recovered much, or all, of the ground lost in the days following 2nd... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US dollar & equities may not always dance to the same tune On balance we suspect the US dollar will be positively correlated with the performance of the US stock market (i.e. it will have a “positive beta”) over the next year or so. But we don’t think that... 15th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian leu: is this the start of a big depreciation? The strong lead for far-right candidate George Simion in Romania’s presidential election, and the collapse of the coalition government last week, led to the largest one-week fall in the leu since 2009... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Wait-and-see FOMC gives the dollar some respite The dollar has edged higher against most major currencies over the week as a whole, supported by the FOMC’s pushback against expectations of policy easing in the near term. The turmoil in some Asian... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trade deals may provide limited boost to US assets Thanks to continued optimism over prospective trade deals to reduce US tariff rates, asset markets have generally recouped most of their losses after the 2 nd April tariff announcement. That said, we... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
