Europe Economics Focus ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. They are likely to be more... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by Q1 2026 As was widely expected, the RBNZ cut its Official Cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, today. The revelation that the decision to cut was not a unanimous one has been interpreted as a hawkish signal by... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (April 2025) With underlying price pressures proving somewhat persistent, we're sticking to our view that the RBA won't cut rates as far as markets are anticipating. 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in the first half of May means that the risks to our forecast for a final hike in June are skewed to the downside. But if the Q1 GDP data due... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional GDP... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May 2025) May’s euro-zone business and consumer survey from the European Commission shows a small improvement in sentiment, but the data are still consistent with the economy struggling. And the price... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal package moves to the Senate The "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House has raised some concerns about the fiscal outlook. However, we expect the rise in tariff revenue to almost exactly offset the House bill's extra costs... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Markets overreacting to rise in core inflation in April As expected, the removal of the carbon tax pushed headline inflation down to 1.7% in April, comfortably in the bottom half of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range. Nonetheless, the acceleration... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Disagreement at the ECB but more cuts to come Data released this week – and Donald Trump’s latest threat of imposing a 50% tariff on imports from the EU – reinforce our view that the ECB will cut interest rates in June and loosen policy further... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Brazil’s robust Q1, Milei’s victory, Panama protests Data out of Brazil next week are likely to show that the economy rebounded in Q1 and inflation rose in the first half of May, supporting the case for the central bank to deliver one final rate hike in... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Inflation higher for longer; further tax rises incoming The prospect of higher inflation for longer raises the chances of interest rates falling slower than we expect. Together with the government's announcements this week on the public sector pay rises... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
