US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (May 6-7) The minutes of the Fed’s early-May policy meeting were, on balance, slightly hawkish. In particular, “almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation could prove to be more persistent... 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch BoC to cut despite high core inflation We suspect the Bank of Canada will be more concerned by the weakness in the labour market than the rise in core inflation in April, so we are sticking to our view that the Bank will cut its policy... 28th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. They are likely to be more... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by Q1 2026 As was widely expected, the RBNZ cut its Official Cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, today. The revelation that the decision to cut was not a unanimous one has been interpreted as a hawkish signal by... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (April 2025) With underlying price pressures proving somewhat persistent, we're sticking to our view that the RBA won't cut rates as far as markets are anticipating. 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (May 2025) With the RBNZ clearly concerned about the health of the economy, we continue to believe that its easing cycle has much further to run. 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is one policy rate appropriate for all of the euro-zone? For most of the time since the euro was established, the ECB’s “one size fits all” interest rate policy was a major problem for the single currency area. It contributed to imbalances between countries... 27th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in the first half of May means that the risks to our forecast for a final hike in June are skewed to the downside. But if the Q1 GDP data due... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional GDP... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May 2025) May’s euro-zone business and consumer survey from the European Commission shows a small improvement in sentiment, but the data are still consistent with the economy struggling. And the price... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of lower quality UK economic data The well-known quality issues with the UK’s labour market data might well extend to some of the other UK economic data. This matters as it could have a critical bearing on policy decisions and lead to... 27th May 2025 · 20 mins read
