US Rapid Response Court ruling adds another layer of uncertainty to Trump's tariffs The ruling by the three-judge panel of the Federal Court of International Trade blocking President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will presumably be appealed by the administration all the way to the... 29th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (May 6-7) The minutes of the Fed’s early-May policy meeting were, on balance, slightly hawkish. In particular, “almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation could prove to be more persistent... 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch BoC to cut despite high core inflation We suspect the Bank of Canada will be more concerned by the weakness in the labour market than the rise in core inflation in April, so we are sticking to our view that the Bank will cut its policy... 28th May 2025 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus What COVID-19 means for real estate out to 2030 and beyond The pandemic is firmly in our collective rear-view mirrors, but five years on, its effects continue to drive real estate performance differentials. We expect it to remain integral to driving winners... 28th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily How much further could Treasury term premia rise? The 10-year Treasury term premium, as estimated by ACM, rose to a more-than-decade high of ~0.9% last week amid renewed concerns about US fiscal policy. But while the premium remains far below the ~4%... 27th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Apr. 2025) The rebound in core durable goods orders in April wraps up a month of solid activity data, underscoring that tariffs have yet to inflict the severe damage on the economy some had feared. Nonetheless... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal package moves to the Senate The "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House has raised some concerns about the fiscal outlook. However, we expect the rise in tariff revenue to almost exactly offset the House bill's extra costs... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Dollar falters as fiscal and trade policy concerns grow President Trump’s recommendation of a 50% tariff on the EU gave the dollar only a short-lived boost and the DXY index is still on track to snap a four-week ‘winning’ streak. This looks likely to be... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Markets overreacting to rise in core inflation in April As expected, the removal of the carbon tax pushed headline inflation down to 1.7% in April, comfortably in the bottom half of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range. Nonetheless, the acceleration... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Apr. 2025) Despite various headwinds and weakness elsewhere in the housing market, new home sales grew strongly in April. We do not expect that this strength will be maintained throughout the year, though, as... 23rd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Mar 2025) The jump in motor vehicle sales in March suggests that tariff front-running has supported consumption, although the big picture is that retail sales were strong in most of the key sectors. Likewise... 23rd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Big is not so beautiful for bonds The passage of Donald Trump’s ‘one, big beautiful bill’ through the House of Representatives today has done little to calm nerves in the bond market, which had already been frayed by Moody’s recent... 22nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Apr. 2025) The further decline in existing home sales in April suggests that elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Things could go from bad to worse over the next... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) Treasury yields eased slightly in Q1 but have since risen again. With property cap rates broadly flat, our valuation scores continue to point to overvaluation. This reinforces our view that any... 22nd May 2025 · 0 mins read
Equities Update Revising back up our forecast for the S&P 500 Despite the latest setback in the S&P 500, we are revising back up our end-2025 forecast for the index in response to the de-escalation of the trade war albeit to a lower level of 6,250 than the... 22nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2025) A tariff-driven resurgence in inflation will likely keep the Fed from cutting this year, keeping mortgage rates near 7.0%. Some relief may come in 2026 and 2027 as rates drop back to 6.5%. Nonetheless... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
