Europe Economics Focus ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. They are likely to be more... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus What COVID-19 means for real estate out to 2030 and beyond The pandemic is firmly in our collective rear-view mirrors, but five years on, its effects continue to drive real estate performance differentials. We expect it to remain integral to driving winners... 28th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is one policy rate appropriate for all of the euro-zone? For most of the time since the euro was established, the ECB’s “one size fits all” interest rate policy was a major problem for the single currency area. It contributed to imbalances between countries... 27th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional GDP... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May 2025) May’s euro-zone business and consumer survey from the European Commission shows a small improvement in sentiment, but the data are still consistent with the economy struggling. And the price... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus The implications of lower quality UK economic data The well-known quality issues with the UK’s labour market data might well extend to some of the other UK economic data. This matters as it could have a critical bearing on policy decisions and lead to... 27th May 2025 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Residential in the UK and the Netherlands to outperform European residential property outperformed all-property for the third consecutive year in 2024 and our updated forecasts suggest that this will continue over the coming five years. Returns were... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Grain prices won’t plummet if war in Ukraine ends Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Disagreement at the ECB but more cuts to come Data released this week – and Donald Trump’s latest threat of imposing a 50% tariff on imports from the EU – reinforce our view that the ECB will cut interest rates in June and loosen policy further... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Trump threat of 50% tariffs President Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff from 1 st June may well turn out to be a negotiating tactic and seems very unlikely to be where tariffs settle over the long run. But if it were implemented it... 23rd May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Inflation higher for longer; further tax rises incoming The prospect of higher inflation for longer raises the chances of interest rates falling slower than we expect. Together with the government's announcements this week on the public sector pay rises... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economy Germany’s historic shift to looser fiscal policy will give the economy a boost over the next couple of years, but we think growth will then slow, deindustrialisation will continue, and real income... 23rd May 2025 · 16 mins read
