Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Mar 2025) The jump in motor vehicle sales in March suggests that tariff front-running has supported consumption, although the big picture is that retail sales were strong in most of the key sectors. Likewise... 23rd May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2025) Although for the first time since 2015, excluding the pandemic, retail sales volumes have risen for four months in a row, April’s impressive 1.2% m/m rise was largely driven by the unusually warm... 23rd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Apr 2025) Despite fears raised by the slump in sentiment, retail sales edged up by 0.1% m/m in April, following a massive 1.7% m/m gain the month before. Admittedly, control group sales fell by 0.2% m/m last... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to keep calm even as waters grow choppy At first glance, it would seem that downside risks to activity and inflation are growing in Australia. The ABS' household spending indicator suggests that consumer spending slowed to a halt in Q1... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Should we fear a surge in US student loan default rates? Student loan default rates are set to soar and the government will soon begin collections against defaulted loans for the first time since the pandemic. This is unlikely to be a big drag on households... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased... 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (March 2025) Euro-zone retail sales declined in March, reversing part of the increase in February. We expect spending growth to remain weak for the rest of the year as any support from lower interest rates is... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Housing market adds to the downside risks to activity We suspect that the recent slowdown in house prices this year is temporary. But while it is not our base case, a weaker housing market for longer would add to the downside risks to our already below... 2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2025) 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Mar. 2025) The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar. 25) 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s Q1 growth weaker than officials claim Our China Activity Proxy calls into question the consensus view, based on the official GDP figures, that China’s economy remained resilient at the start of this year. Despite some improvement in March... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s non-oil sector unlikely to sustain strong start Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed a relatively strong start to the year underpinned by its non-oil sector. But while GDP growth will accelerate this year as oil output rises, the coinciding slip in oil... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
