Commodities Focus Commodities in an age of tariffs Although the global tariff environment now appears to be heading towards a far more benign environment than had appeared likely a month or so ago, it still represents a demand shock that will prove a... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: $175 billion of bullion?; Kazakhstan is sorry not sorry Gold bugs’ hearts will have skipped a beat when President Trump announced the plan to construct a Golden Dome over the US earlier this week, only to regain a normal cardiac rhythm when it became clear... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Iran, Egypt’s MPR, Morocco secures UAE investment Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the... 22nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US equity and bond markets to keep ignoring oil We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets. 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Easing supply risks sharpens focus on soft oil demand Despite the latest tariff rollback, commodity demand is still set to soften this year. In oil markets, with supply set to rise as OPEC+ brings back barrels more quickly than first planned, the risks... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Insecurity in Nigeria: will Tinubu fix it? Nigeria’s long-running security challenges have brought obvious human costs, and they have also contributed to the economy’s woes by hurting output in the agriculture and oil sectors, weakening demand... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran... 13th May 2025 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ goes bold, Trump heads to the Gulf OPEC+’s decision to speed up the pace of oil output increases will help the Gulf members to recapture market share over the next few years, while also providing a boost to headline GDP growth... 8th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (May 2025) OPEC+’s announcement that it will pick up the pace of oil output increases for the second consecutive month in June helped to push oil prices to four-year lows. This represents a marked shift in... 8th May 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy? Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update New (lower) oil price forecasts Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently... 6th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan? This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Saudi Arabia raises the oil market stakes Reports from Riyadh this week, which suggested that Saudi Arabia is losing patience with production cuts, have further clouded the outlook for oil supply. It’s possible that the message was intended... 2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
