Global Economics Update PMIs show price pressures easing outside the US The latest flash PMIs point to weak activity and a softening of price pressures in advanced economies outside the US. But the surveys suggest that tariffs are already having an inflationary impact in... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs affecting sentiment more than activity so far Q1 GDP data showed that most of the world’s economies were still growing at a decent pace ahead of the main tariff hikes and several were boosted by front-running. Consumer and business confidence... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 22nd May 2025) · 0 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage... 30th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Trump: What to expect in the second 100 days President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office has been characterised by radical changes to trade policy, immigration and the Federal government, all implemented by an unprecedented use of... 29th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economy financial conditions on the mend The recent reduction in equity market volatility has reversed most of the tightening in our market-based narrow Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies. Our broad FCIs, which also... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stagflationary impact of tariffs The latest flash PMIs suggest that tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on activity and confidence in most DMs at the start of Q2 and boosted price pressures in the US. 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Would an equity crash spell disaster for the economy? The latest sell-off in equities is still a long way from the scale of those market corrections which coincided with recessions in the past. As things stand, the ~14% fall in the S&P 500 since February... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out trade war scenarios President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other... 10th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump shock: What to expect next on tariffs Clinton adviser James Carville famously quipped that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market but, as President Donald Trump is now finding out, the equity market can be pretty intimidating... 6th April 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China hits back, hard China has responded to US tariffs with an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, the most sweeping it has ever imposed. Some US companies have also been added to China’s unreliable entities list and... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
