Harry Chambers

Harry is an assistant economist and joined the graduate training scheme in 2024, having previously spent a year on placement at Capital Economics in 2022. He holds an undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Bath.

US Economics Weekly

Fiscal package moves to the Senate

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House has raised some concerns about the fiscal outlook. However, we expect the rise in tariff revenue to almost exactly offset the House bill's extra costs...

23rd May 2025 7 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Apr. 2025)

The further decline in existing home sales in April suggests that elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Things could go from bad to worse over the next...

22nd May 2025 2 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (May. 2025)

We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided...

20th May 2025 1 min read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Housing market weakness becomes harder to ignore

The softening housing market has mostly flown under the radar, but that is soon likely to change following April’s data, which showed house prices taking another sharp leg down. Combined with the...

16th May 2025 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Was Trump right about tariffs?

The lack of any obvious tariff effect in either the price or activity data for April raises an interesting question – is it just taking longer for it to show up or was President Trump right after all...

16th May 2025 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Apr. 2025)

The small rebound in housing starts in April is more troubling than it appears, as it barely recoups the sharp, weather-related decline seen in March and conceals renewed weakness in both single- and...

16th May 2025 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Industrial Production (Apr. 2025)

At face value, the stagnation of industrial production in April and the fall in manufacturing output suggest that tariffs are weighing on domestic production. However, some of this is due to an...

15th May 2025 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Assessing the risks to single-family home construction

Fears that single-family housing starts are on the verge of collapse because of the large buildup of new homes for sale are overblown. The accumulation largely reflects smaller private builders...

12th May 2025 3 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Fed on hold as China trade talks begin

The “full and comprehensive” trade deal between the US and the UK announced this week by President Donald Trump was none of those things. This rush to demonstrate progress on “deals” reveals a rising...

9th May 2025 9 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow

Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to...

9th May 2025 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Growth stronger than reported but weaker than believed

The outsized surge in imports last quarter makes the negative Q1 GDP reading an inordinately poor reflection of the economy's strength. However, stripping out an artificially large jump in IT...

2nd May 2025 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Carney should find support for stimulus despite minority

Although Mark Carney’s Liberal Party just missed out on a majority in the election this week, the conciliatory tones from the Bloc Québécois suggest that the government should find the support needed...

2nd May 2025 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

US ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr. 2025)

The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index in April suggests that, while tariffs are weighing on the economy, they are not crushing it. And although the prices paid index is still some way below...

1st May 2025 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Personal Income & Spending (Mar. 2025)

The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the...

30th April 2025 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

The implications of lumber tariffs

While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that...

29th April 2025 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2025)

February’s 0.4% m/m rise in house prices is still a bit stronger than the timely leading indicators - like rising months’ supply and longer average time on market - would suggest. However, along with...

29th April 2025 2 mins read