The Future of Europe Macro challenges and market opportunities in a more dangerous world The future of Europe series The Future of Europe Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing introduces the Future of Europe series. Is the current optimism about Europe justified? What's gone right for Europe - and what will continue to hold it back. Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economy Germany’s fiscal easing has lifted sentiment toward Europe, but it won’t fix the country’s long-term outlook or Europe’s global competitiveness. Three key questions on European markets Is the repricing of European risk assets sustainable? This analysis grapples with one of the big themes in global markets this year. Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Here's why euro-zone governments are likely to continue running large budget deficits, and what that means for interest rates. The UK’s future in Europe From defence to trade to reversing Brexit, here's how far the UK's "EU reset" will – and won't – go. Is the euro's share of global FX reserves set to rise? How looser fiscal policy could set the stage for the euro to expand its role as a reserve currency over the coming years. A European defence revolution? We've seen the initial steps - but here's why a defence revolution won't transform Europe's prospects just yet. Three key questions on the outlook for Europe’s financial markets We think European equities have turned a corner, while euro-zone bond markets look more robust, and the euro will hold on to some of its recent gains. Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The EU's expansion in the coming years won't be anywhere near as impactful – nor as beneficial for its new members – as its enlargement was in the 2000s. Is one policy rate appropriate for all of the euro-zone? At present, there seems to be no major differences between the appropriate interest rate in the four largest euro-zone economies. ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. Europe In data Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor Europe's Macro Imbalances Europe Macro Database Other key Europe analysis Europe Economics Focus Defence and growth in Germany: a closer look We think Germany is likely to raise defence spending by around 1.5% of GDP between 2024 and 2027. With the government unlikely to cut other spending much and the defence industry well placed to raise... 2nd April 2025 · 18 mins read Europe Economics Focus French public debt: trouble brewing Developments over the past year have put France’s public debt on a steeper upward path, with the debt ratio now likely to rise from 113% of GDP last year to around 126% by 2030. We see little chance... 21st January 2025 · 14 mins read Europe Economics Focus The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect... 27th November 2024 · 29 mins read Europe Economics Focus How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union? EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change... 31st January 2025 · 14 mins read Latest Europe economic and market coverage See all our Europe coverage Europe Economics Focus ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. They are likely to be more... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read US Commercial Property Focus What COVID-19 means for real estate out to 2030 and beyond The pandemic is firmly in our collective rear-view mirrors, but five years on, its effects continue to drive real estate performance differentials. We expect it to remain integral to driving winners... 28th May 2025 · 15 mins read Europe Economics Update Is one policy rate appropriate for all of the euro-zone? For most of the time since the euro was established, the ECB’s “one size fits all” interest rate policy was a major problem for the single currency area. It contributed to imbalances between countries... 27th May 2025 · 4 mins read Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May) 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional GDP... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May 2025) May’s euro-zone business and consumer survey from the European Commission shows a small improvement in sentiment, but the data are still consistent with the economy struggling. And the price... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read UK Economics Focus The implications of lower quality UK economic data The well-known quality issues with the UK’s labour market data might well extend to some of the other UK economic data. This matters as it could have a critical bearing on policy decisions and lead to... 27th May 2025 · 20 mins read Table of Contents The Future of Europe series Europe in data Other key Europe analysis Latest coverage
Europe Economics Focus Defence and growth in Germany: a closer look We think Germany is likely to raise defence spending by around 1.5% of GDP between 2024 and 2027. With the government unlikely to cut other spending much and the defence industry well placed to raise... 2nd April 2025 · 18 mins read
Europe Economics Focus French public debt: trouble brewing Developments over the past year have put France’s public debt on a steeper upward path, with the debt ratio now likely to rise from 113% of GDP last year to around 126% by 2030. We see little chance... 21st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect... 27th November 2024 · 29 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union? EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change... 31st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. They are likely to be more... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus What COVID-19 means for real estate out to 2030 and beyond The pandemic is firmly in our collective rear-view mirrors, but five years on, its effects continue to drive real estate performance differentials. We expect it to remain integral to driving winners... 28th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is one policy rate appropriate for all of the euro-zone? For most of the time since the euro was established, the ECB’s “one size fits all” interest rate policy was a major problem for the single currency area. It contributed to imbalances between countries... 27th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional GDP... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May 2025) May’s euro-zone business and consumer survey from the European Commission shows a small improvement in sentiment, but the data are still consistent with the economy struggling. And the price... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus The implications of lower quality UK economic data The well-known quality issues with the UK’s labour market data might well extend to some of the other UK economic data. This matters as it could have a critical bearing on policy decisions and lead to... 27th May 2025 · 20 mins read
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